Probability of hurricane force winds late this afternoon and this evening

by Steve Dunford 

This has been forecasted for several days now.  The SPC still has us in a moderate risk for severe weather.  The tornado threat has lessened, but if you can see in the graphic it is still there.  The main concern is damaging straight line thunderstorm winds.

The Storm Prediction center used the term hurricane force winds in a product that came out this morning.  Hurricane force winds are 74 mph plus.

Please do not take this as overkill, or trying to cry wolf.  This could be a system that was similar to May 8, 2009 or July 2, 1980 that caused widespread damage across the region.

This system needs to be taken very seriously and will be a fast moving system.  Timing should be anytime after 4:00 p.m.  I will be keeping an eye on any storm today on radar that appears to even be a rain shower.  The atmosphere is so juiced any cell could turn severe quickly.

I would keep a close eye to the sky especially if you are having an outdoor event.  Be prepared to take action if a county is under a warning two counties to the west or the east.

I would keep your cell phone charged, and take other precautions to have a long term power outage.

There will be several updates throughout the day on the website’s Facebook page.  I will be continue to monitor the situation, and will bring updates whenever warranted.  Below is the Hazardous Weather Outlook from the National Weather Service in Paduach, KY.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.

.DAY ONE…Today and Tonight Latest forecast trends indicate that an intense line of severe thunderstorms will move into the northwest part of the outlook area, namely southwest Illinois and Southeast Missouri, between 5 pm and 7pm today. This line of storms will likely produce widespread wind gusts in excess of 80 mph.

The damaging winds could last up to an hour. Depending on the intensity and duration of this line of severe storms, the line could completely move through the outlook area before midnight. In addition to the damaging wind potential, isolated severe storms may develop ahead of this line later today. These storms would have the potential for large hail, damaging winds, as well as a tornado.

A moderate risk remains in place for most of the outlook area, except parts of Southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of West Kentucky, which remain in an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms. At this time, the greatest risk for widespread severe thunderstorms is later this afternoon and this evening. A few storms may still be likely over parts of Southeast Missouri and West Kentucky during the morning hours. Every form of severe weather is possible, including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Heavy rainfall and deadly lightning will also be storm hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Sunday through Friday A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast Sunday, especially during the afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds and hail are the primary severe weather hazards, with locally heavy rain and deadly lightning also storm hazards. Thunderstorms are also forecast Tuesday afternoon, and Wednesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT… Spotter activation is expected today and tonight.