The last two wins could turn the tide for the Cardinals

by Steve Dunford

Jack Links Beef Jerky made out like bandits in bonus advertising the last two nights.  Six was a Serious Number, the last two nights, and On The Run is coughing up $.50 drinks today.

I realize both wins have been against the lowly Phillies, a team that I fear at times the Cardinals are heading the same direction, a win is a win though.  Last night after the dismal pitching performance with Michael Wacha, and the struggles of Greg Garcia in the field and at the plate, Matt Carpenter going 0-5, and walk off the field with a win was a big boost.  Even if it was against the sisters of the poor, comeback wins like that can turn around a season.

Since Cardinal General Manager John Mozeliak announced his big shakeup, I have noticed the Cardinal offense on the upswing.  I am old school in baseball in a lot of things.  I would hate to see the DH come to the National League.  I love double switches.  I love the strategy decisions whether or to pinch hit for your starter in the seventh inning when he is dealing.

If I am flipping channels I will sit and watch a few innings of an NL game.  The only time I will stop and watch and American League game is to watch Albert Pujols or Matt Holliday hit.

This old school baseball guy is slowly turning into a sabermetrics guy.  I pay more attention to a players OPS (on base percentage + slugging percentage)  than I do the traditional hitting stats of batting average home runs and RBI’s.

Here is when I made my conversion.  When the Cardinals dealt Jon Jay to the Padres for Jedd Gyorko, several Cardinal fans bemoaned the fact that he was a .300 hitter.  I would tell him yes, but Jay rarely takes a walk.  That is when I started looking at a players OPS more than their batting average.

Jay’s OPS in his .300 average years in St. Louis was below .800, which would make him a little more than an average hitter at best.  In 2012 Jay had a .305 average with an OPS of .773, In 2014 he had a .303 average and an .750 OPS.

Two days before Gyorko was dealt to the Cardinals, I looked like the genius that I am not.  I was talking Cardinal baseball with a group of people online two days before.  We were talking about the weak bench, I said we needed someone like Gyorko or injured Atlanta Brave, Sean Rodriguez, who was with the Pirates.  I thought Gyorko would be a hustling utility man that has been in the Cardinals past like Jose Oquendo, Rex Hudler and Joe McEwing, not hitting cleanup as the starting 3B and has the potential to be an All Star reserve.

Since Mo’s shakeup, I have noticed an uptick in the Cardinal offense since Mark Budaska is looking over John Mabry’s shoulder.  I realized Camden Yards is more of a bambox than Cincinnati’s Great American ballpark over the weekend.  If you have an OPS of .900, you will have a very successful MLB career.  I wish I had comparisons of before and after Budaska had taken over.  The biggest breakdown is over the last seven days.  Here is a list of the Cardinals during that time frame with a .900 plus OPS:

Dexter Fowler	1.381
Matt Carpenter	1.096
Tommy Pham	1.080
Jose Martinez	1.042
Jedd Gyorko	1.011
Stephen Piscotty	1.002
Yadier Molina	.920
Paul DeJong	.903

The offense is starting to click.  Yes the starting pitching is in a little slump.  I am not concerned with Lance Lynn and Mike Leake.  Since Carlos Martinez ditched the stupid hair extension, he has been putting up Cy Young type numbers.  His maturity level is increasing, as he has had only one meltdown. I am somewhat concerned about Adam Wainwright.  I am very concerned about Michael Wacha, in his last few starts.

The Dodgers have learned to manipulate the 10 day DL to their advantage.  Put Wacha on the DL for arm fatigue.  Rehab assignments are for 30 days this year instead of 20.  Give him some time off.  Assign him to Memphis for his rehab and put him in the bullpen.

Here are some candidates who could take Wacha’s place in the rotation.  Personally I would like to see Jack Flaherty get a shot.   The 21 year old right hander had an impressive spring, and is climbing through the minors quickly.  He is 1-0 with a 3.04 ERA at Memphis after being called up from Springfield.  In AA he was 7-2 with  a 1.42 ERA.

Luke Weaver could be back.  He is 6-1 with a 2.33 ERA.  John Gant only had the mopup game when he was with the big club is 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA.  Marco Gonzales got rocked in his DH start but he is 2-3 with a  2.97 ERA.  These are all Memphis stats.

Some say that if he goes to the pen he could have closer type stuff.  He could be wicked one inning at a time, but I see him as a 7th inning guy.

I am very concerned with Seung Hwan Oh.  I pay close attention to a starters ERA.  For a relief pitcher, I pay more attention to their WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched.)  Below a 1.00 is outstanding.  When you get in the 1.25 range, you are getting hit pretty hard. Oh’s is at 1.39.  He pitched out of a jam last night, but it is more than the Cubs slapping him around.

John Brebbia, who has been outstanding out of the pen leads the club with an .075.  Trevor Rosenthal has a 1.09.  Matt Bowman has a 1.12.

For the Cardinals to be successful, they need to count on these two guys to have weeks like they have had.  Lefthanders Brett Cecil had a .027 WHIP and Kevin Siegrist had an .050 whip in the last two games.

Greg Garcia made it clear in the early season that he wanted to be a starter.  His average has dipped to .208 and was plum awful in the field.  I was thinking last night, those are Pete Kozma numbers.  He is out of options, and his Cardinal days might be limited if they keep one utility infielder on the bench.  Paul DeJong deserves to stay with the big club.  The only savior for Garcia is that he is a left handed hitter.

Speaking of left handed hitters, the website MLB Trade Rumors, which is usually accurate, says that Freddie Freeman will be moving to 3B.  Matt Adams has found a home.  He could have been that middle of the order bat the Cardinals need.

Here is todays lineup.  Get a win Cmart, and hopefully he gets the run support he deserves.  Dexter Fowler is not in the lineup.  He is listed as day to day,

ST. LOUIS

Carpenter 1B

Pham CF

Piscotty RF

Gyroko 3B

Molina C

J. Martinez LF

Diaz SS

De Jong 2B

C. Martinez P

PHILIDELPHIA

Perkins RF

Galvis SS

Hererra CF

Franco 3B

Nava LF

Joseph 1B

Blanco 2B

Rupp C

Nola p