…LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING…

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a Lake Wind Advisory, which is in effect until 8 PM CDT this evening. *

TIMING…From 1015 AM CDT to 8 PM CDT * WINDS…Will average 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph from the west southwest especially for areas east of Interstate 57. Winds will gradually shift to the northwest this afternoon.

* IMPACTS…Winds are expected to be strong enough to cause problems for boaters on area lakes. Small boats will be the most significantly impacted.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… A Lake Wind Advisory indicates that winds will cause rough chop on area lakes. Small boats will be especially prone to capsizing.

by Steve Dunford 

Just in the last fifteen minutes, Southern Illinois was taken out of the marginal risk (level 1) of severe weather.

There is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. With highs in the upper 70’s.

Tomorrow will be a picture perfect day with the high around 80 degrees.

I hope everyone has a wonderful weekend and remember those who gave their lives for the freedoms we enjoy.

by Steve Dunford 

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled for all the counties north of the Route 13 corridor.  Williamson, Saline, Gallatian and the southern seven counties still remain in the watch.

The Storm Perdiction Center still has everything in Southern Illinois south of I 64 in a slight risk of severe weather for the overnight hours, so your guard can’t be completely let down.

As far as the hurricane force winds, they went through the southern seven counties, as there have been some minor damage reports out of Union and Pulaski counties.

As of now, the severe threat for tomorrow has been downgraded from a slight (level 2) to a marginal (level 1).

Monday is going to be a picture perfect day.  If you have the day off work, I hope you enjoy it, and remember the ones who paid the price for your freedom.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Western and south-central Kentucky Far southeast Missouri Western and middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 515 PM until Midnight CDT. .

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION… * Primary threats include… Widespread damaging winds expected with scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A few tornadoes possible

SUMMARY…A very fast-moving line of convection will continue to pose a risk for widespread wind damage as it races east-southeastward through the evening hours. A few tornadoes and hail will also be possible with the fast-moving squall line and/or other line-preceding storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Cape Girardeau MO to 55 miles east southeast of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… REMEMBER…A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

Please monitor the Facebook page for additional warnings.  I just want to share this on a post.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 453 PM CDT

JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-UNION-JOHNSON- ALEXANDER-PULASKI-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-PERRY MO- BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD- SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MOUNT VERNON, PINCKNEYVILLE, WEST FRANKFORT, CARBONDALE, MURPHYSBORO, HERRIN, JONESBORO, VIENNA, CAIRO, MOUND CITY, HICKMAN, CLINTON, BARDWELL, WICKLIFFE, PERRYVILLE, MARBLE HILL, CAPE GIRARDEAU, JACKSON, PIEDMONT, VAN BUREN, DONIPHAN, POPLAR BLUFF, BLOOMFIELD, SIKESTON, CHARLESTON, AND NEW MADRID 453 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

….Damaging winds of 70 to 100 mph possible with line of storms moving across Eastern and Southern Missouri… A line of storms, capable of producing widespread and destructive winds, are moving east, southeast between 45 and 50 mph over parts of Eastern and Southern Missouri. These storms will likely cause widespread tree damage, damage to some homes, and numerous power outages.

Persons who are considering travel on Interstate 55 and 57 in Southeast Missouri, as well as Highway 60, are urged to delay travel from now until after 7 pm CDT. These storms will likely move near Van Buren and Piedmont Missouri around 5 pm CDT…Ava Illinois, Cape Girardeau and Dexter Missouri around 6 pm…Creal Springs and Vienna Illinois, onward to New Madrid Missouri around 7 pm CDT. These arrival times may vary with the forward speed of the line of thunderstorms. If you outside, be prepared to look for sturdy shelter. These are particularly dangerous storms.

There is a pretty strong line of storms that is ahead of the main system, that should possibly be in the area about 3 p.m.  The main system is now south of Kansas City and the Joplin area.

The chance of watch issuance is 95 percent.  Whether it will be a severe thunderstorm or tornado is yet to be determined.  In my opinion, I look for a Tornado Watch to be issued.

by Steve Dunford 

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded all of Southern Illinois to a moderate risk (level 4) for severe weather tomorrow.

The wind advisory for area lakes is still in effect today.  Models are showing that we will be under the gun here in Franklin County from about 5:00 tomorrow until about 2:00 A.M. on Sunday morning.

Highs will reach into the upper 80’s tomorrow with a lot of humidity.  Ahead of a couple waves of storms that is projected to come through between 10:00 p.m. and midnight, and pop up storm that would form can quickly become severe.  The SPC said these storms could be explosive.

This is what has my concern, and prompted the moderate risk.  You can see in the graphic that most of Missouri and Southern Illinois is n the 45% range with hash marks.

This means there is a 45% chance within a 25 mile area that severe weather could occur.  The definition of severe weather is straight line winds over 58mph, one inch hail, and tornadoes.

Dr Greg Forbes has his TORCON value unchanged at three.  KFVS has the probability of tornadoes in their coverage area at 4 on a scale to 10.  For large hail and damaging winds it is a 6.

The Lake Wind advisory is still in effect.  Memorial day weekend is a time for outdoor activities.  Below is some outdoor safety tips in severe weather.  I posted them yesterday.

I will do my best to keep you informed of this upcoming weather event.

Press Release from the US Army Corps of Engineers – Rend Lake Office 

BENTON, IL— Before you head out for a day on or near the water, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) encourages you to make sure you have life jackets for everyone and that you wear them.

South Sandusky Beach on Rend Lake illinoiscampers.com image

In the last 10 years, 88 percent of all USACE public water-related fatalities were men and 68 percent were between the ages of 20 and 60, according to data compiled by the USACE National Operations Center for Water Safety. The center also reports that 84 percent of all public water-related fatalities involved people not wearing life jackets and found that the greatest number of water-related fatalities involved people swimming in areas not designated for swimming. In addition, 27 percent of boating fatalities involved people falling overboard.

Several people who drown never intended to be in the water; they unexpectedly fell from a boat or dock into the water. When this happens, a person will reflexively gasp and can inhale up to one liter of water and drown in less than a minute.

Even a strong swimmer can drown from a fall into cold water because it causes an involuntary gasp (or torso) reflex. A life jacket can help save your life by allowing time for rescue. Some researchers believe cold water is anything lower than normal body temperature of 98.6°F.

Others get into trouble swimming out to retrieve a boat that floated away, or swimming in association with a boat. Swimming in natural waters is not the same as swimming in a pool. Even strong swimmers can get into trouble and be gone within seconds. It takes an average of 60 seconds for an adult to drown and just 20 seconds for a child to drown. Swimming ability also decreases with age.

Swim at a designated swim beach. These areas have been inspected to provide a safe swimming environment. At all USACE beaches you swim at your own risk so adults please watch your children, because most people drowned within 10 feet of safety. Many shorelines at USACE lake and river projects have drop offs and you can be in water over your head instantly or pulled under by the current.

Always wear the right size and type of life jacket for the activity you are enjoying. Life Jackets Worn…Nobody Mourns. Learn more at PleaseWearIt.com.

USACE is the nation’s largest federal provider of water-based outdoor recreation, managing more than 400 lake and river projects in 43 states and hosting more than 250 million visits per year. They provide a diverse range of outdoor activities close to home and to people of all ages. For more information on USACE recreation sites and activities, visit www.CorpsLakes.us.